Global eCommerce expanded 22x since 2000, reaching $6.3T by 2025, but growth has slowed to 8% CAGR, down from 21% in earlier years. Penetration is stalling at 21% of retail sales.
eCommerce grew from $0.3T in 2000 to $6.3T by 2025. Penetration jumped from 1% to 21%. Early years saw a 21% CAGR, but now it's down to 8%. The boom years are fading as growth stabilizes.
Covid fueled eCommerce, but that surge is over. Growth hit 24% pre-pandemic but has now slowed to 8.5% annually. Between 2015-2019, growth was 3x higher than in 2022-2026. The sector is maturing.
US and UK online retail is falling below pre-Covid trends. The US peaked over 30% penetration but is now lower. The UK followed a similar path. Shoppers are heading back to stores, shifting eCommerce’s long-term trajectory.
Is eCommerce’s slowdown a reset or a long-term trend?
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