The Maze: Private label used to be easy to read. If shoppers said they wanted more own-brand, retailers gained. If intent fell, national brands could breathe. Europe's grocery data now breaks that logic. Private-label value share reached 40.0% in 2025, while net intent to buy more own-brand fell to 29% in 2026. The threat is not fading. Part of it has stopped feeling like store brand. Retailers have moved from cheap substitutes to premium ranges, quality tiers, and branded architecture. The survey language is lagging the shelf.
Share and intent are moving in opposite directions. Private-label share rose from 36.2% in 2022 to 40.0% in 2025, while stated own-brand buying intent fell from 36% in 2023 to 29% in 2026. Share captures what shoppers bought. Net intent captures what they think they plan to do. When the purchase keeps growing but the label becomes less attractive as a stated behavior, the category has probably changed shape.
Premium intent is the tell. Net intent to trade up to premium or quality recovered from -5% in 2023 to +3% in 2026. That is still small, but the direction matters. The report says price pressure is easing from the 2023 peak, while premium options are gaining relevance. A shopper buying a premium retailer range may not feel like they are trading down. They may feel like they are buying the better product.
Retailers have turned private label into an innovation engine. McKinsey's companion page says private labels now account for 44% of Western European grocery innovation activity, and 70% in food. It also says private labels are expanding beyond price into budget, premium, free-from, organic, local, and other consumer-led propositions. That changes the competitive frame. Private label is no longer one cheap shelf tier. It is a retailer-owned portfolio.
The brand-owner comfort read is dangerous. Falling own-brand intent could tempt CPG companies to think shoppers are drifting back to manufacturer brands. The same report says private-label share is at 40%, about 90% of consumers expect to keep buying private label at the same or higher levels, and retailers are expected to strengthen own-brand propositions. The EuroCommerce framing is blunt: private brands help grocers defend margins in a pressured market.
The caveat is the point. The LinkedIn post does not prove reclassification. Premiumization and a sticky own-label base could simply be happening at the same time. But even that softer interpretation is not comforting. If private label can grow while shoppers say less often that they plan to buy it, the retail brand has become less visible as a compromise. That is the kind of threat incumbents underestimate.
Why it matters: Brand manufacturers usually fight private label as a price problem. Europe suggests that is too narrow. The harder threat is quality permission: retailers can use store data, shelf control, loyalty programs, and product architecture to make their own ranges feel normal, premium, or even distinctive. Once that happens, consumers do not need to declare loyalty to own-brand. They just put it in the basket. The battle shifts from defending the brand premium to proving why the national brand deserves one.
